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San Francisco Bay Fund Inventory of Projects

San Francisco Bay Fund Inventory of Projects

Model and map tidal marsh plant and bird species distributions in San Francisco Bay under various climate change scenarios.

Organization: PRBO Conservation Science
2008 and 2009 Grant Recipient - All Bay Area Counties

Purpose

PRBO Conservation Science researchers modeled and mapped tidal marsh sustainability and restoration potential in San Francisco Bay under various future climate change scenarios, this included calculating tidal marsh sustainability using non-linear rates of sea-level rise (SLR), salinity projections and sediment concentrations with organic accretion. They developed scenarios of climate change impacts on tidal marsh vegetation and bird species from 2010-2110 based on low or high rates of sea-level rise (0.52 or 1.65 m in 100 yr) and low or high suspended sediment availability.

Their projections show that the total area of mid- and high-level marsh in San Francisco Bay, representing 77% of tidal marsh today, is projected to decrease by 93% (23,000 acres) by 2110 in a high sea-level rise and low sediment supply scenario. For reference, the area of the city of San Francisco is 30,000 acres.

The researchers made their made our findings available as an on-line decision support tool with interactive maps, the SF Bay SLR Tool. The tool can be used by conservation planners at fine spatial scales to identify current upland areas that are projected to be future tidal marsh that could support tidal marsh plants and birds. The tool can also identify future restoration sites which are projected to be resilient to climate change but are currently behind levees or other barriers to tidal influence.

Documents

Contact for the Project
Dr. Grant Ballard
San Francisco Bay Group (Acting) Director,
PRBO Conservation Science
Phone: (707) 781-2555 ext.340
E-mail: GBallard@prbo.org
Website: www.prbo.org/sfbayslr

Last modified: 9/5/2012 3:23 PM by S. Haren

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